The Odds of Making a Flush Hand in Poker

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The odds of flopping a Flush with a suited starting hand is 0.82% or 1 in 122

Definition of Flush

We make a Flush by having five cards of the same suit.

Example – AhJh7h3h2h

An Ace-High Flush is the strongest Flush in poker. However, the suits are all treated equally, and only the denominations are used to determine which Flush beats the other.

Odds of Making a Flush on the Flop

Naturally, the odds of making a Flush on the flop depends on the type of starting hand we are dealt.

Odds of flopping a Flush with any starting hand = 0.2%

Odds of flopping a Flush with a suited starting hand = 0.82%

Odds of flopping a Flush with an unsuited starting hand = 0%

The type of suited hand we have does not affect the odds of making a Flush, but higher ranked cards will make stronger Flushes. Also, although the type of suited hand does not affect the odds of making a Flush, it will affect the odds of making a Flush or better.

Odds of flopping a Flush or better with any starting hand = 0.37%

Odds of making a Flush or better with a suited connector = 0.94%

Odds of making a Flush or better with a pocket pair = 1.22%

Odds of making a Flush or better with AKo = 0.1%

Odds of making a Flush or better with T9s = 0.94%

Odds of Making a Flush Draw on the Flop

Flopping a Flush is most unlikely and requires us to have two suited cards in the hole already. However, Flush draws are a lot more common, so it’s worthwhile knowing the odds of flopping four of the five cards required to make a Flush.

Odds of flopping a two card Flush draw with any starting hand – 2.58%

Odds of flopping a Flush draw with two suited cards – 10.9%

Odds of flopping a one card nut Flush draw with any starting hand – 0.17%

Odds of flopping a one card nut Flush draw with an Ax holding – 1.12%

Odds of flopping any one card Flush draw with an unsuited starting hand – 2.24%

The most useful piece of information here is that we will flop a Flush draw around 11% of the time when starting out with a suited hand.

While the probability of flopping a one card Flush draw with an unsuited starting hand is always 2.24%, it’s worth remembering that non-nut one-card Flush draws are not especially valuable holdings.

For the most part, we prefer our one card Flush draws to be to the nuts.

Odds of Making a Flush on the Later Streets

Let’s assume that we have flopped a Flush draw. How likely are we to make a Flush on the later streets?

Odds of making a Flush on the turn or river

When holding a Flush draw, there are always 9 cards remaining in the deck that can complete our Flush draw.

Hence -

Odds of completing a Flush draw on the turn – 9/47 = 0.1915 or roughly 19.2%

Odds of completing a Flush draw on the river – 9/46 = 0.1957 or roughly 19.6%

Odds of making a Flush by the river

Here we will use the simple trick of calculating the probability of not hitting our Flush draw and then subtracting from 100%.

Probability of not hitting a Flush draw on the turn – 38/47

Probability of not hitting a Flush draw on the river – 37/46


Probability of not hitting by the river is 38/47 * 37/46 = 0.6503 or roughly 65%


Therefore the odds of making a Flush by the river is (100% - 65%) roughly 35%.

Implied Odds Analysis of a Flush

The implied odds of a Flush depend on two main factors.

Two-Card or One-Card – Two-card Flushes (made with both hole cards) always carry better implied odds than one-card Flushes. A two-card Flush on non-paired board texture is always strong enough to play for 100bb stacks with. Non-nut one card Flushes, on the other hand, are little more than bluff-catchers in many situations.

Paired or Unpaired Board – Flushes always carry the best implied odds on unpaired board textures. When the board is paired, Flushes need to be treated with more caution since our opponent may have already made a Full House.

Basic Strategy Advice

Two-card strong Flushes are very powerful holdings in Hold’em and are good enough to play for 100bb stacks.

Two-card Flushes on paired textures are still relatively strong, although it might be safer to avoid getting all of our stack in where possible.

One-card Flushes are only worth playing for stacks with when it’s the nut Flush. 2nd nut one-card Flushes and lower are not overly strong in Hold’em.

If Villain wants to get the stacks in, he likely has a stronger one-card Flush. Mid-strength one-card Flushes are, therefore, little more than bluff-catchers in Hold’em.

The odds of flopping a Flush with a suited starting hand is 0.82% or 1 in 122

   

Method (Flush)

Probability (%)

Flopping a Flush with any starting hand

0.2

Flopping a Flush with a suited starting hand

0.82

Flopping a Flush with an unsuited starting hand

0

Flopping a Flush or better with any starting hand

0.37

Flopping a Flush or better with a suited connector

0.94

Flopping a Flush or better with a pocket pair

1.22

Flopping a Flush or better with Ako

0.1

Flopping a Flush or better with T9s

0.94

Flopping a two-card Flush draw with any starting hand

2.58

Flopping a Flush draw with two suited cards

10.9

Flopping a one card nut Flush draw with any starting hand

0.17

Flopping a one card nut Flush draw with an Ax holding

1.12

Flopping any one card Flush draw with an unsuited starting hand

2.24

Hitting a Flush draw from flop to turn

19.2

Hitting a Flush draw from turn to river

19.6

Hitting a Flush draw from flop to river

35

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