The term ‘chance’ is just a regular English expression which carries the same meaning as ‘probability’ or ‘odds’. Chance is often expressed as a percentage. For example, the chance that we complete our flush draw going from flop to turn is around 19%. 

In this guide we’ll learn the following - 

What is the Chance my Opponent Hits His Gutshot on the River?

With four outs going from turn to river, the chance that our opponent catches his gutshot is around 8.7% or about 1 in 11.5. It’s relatively unlikely but it will happen from time to time and should be considered a normal part of the game (even if it is painful when it happens). 

What is the Chance my Opponent Catches Quads on the River?

With one out going from turn to river, the chance that our opponent catches quads after holding three of a kind is around 2.2% or 45.5 to 1. This virtually never happens but it will happen at some point. It does not mean the game is rigged - the game would only be rigged if this unlikely event never happened.

What is the Chance AA Loses to KK in a Preflop All-in?

The chance of AA losing to KK in a preflop all-in is around 18% or 1 in 5.5. So although it feels really unlucky, it’s actually something that occurs quite frequently. Virtually all poker players will hence be familiar with the experience of losing with KK vs AA in a preflop all-in. 

What is the Chance of being Dealt AA Preflop in Hold’em?

There are 1326 combinations of possible starting hands in Hold’em and 6 combinations of AA. This means that the chance of being dealt AA is about 0.45% or once in every 222 hands. Sometimes we’ll get Aces several times in 222 hands whereas on other occasions we might play over 1000 hands without being dealt the pocket rockets. 

What is the Chance of Hitting an OESD by the River?

An OESD (open ended straight draw) has 4 outs. The chance of hitting going from flop to river is 31.5% or roughly 1 in 3. It’s therefore quite likely that we’ll hit but still more likely that we miss overall. This is not necessarily a problem so long as we are either getting the right price to draw or also have some fold equity (because we are semi-bluffing). 


The term chance in a poker context simply refers to the probability of a certain event happening (such as hitting a draw). Poker players usually use the term odds to describe probability. It’s a great idea to become familiar with the odds of common events. Why not check out this guide to using odds in poker?

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